What is betting with value?

One of the biggest doubts in sports betting is to know the essence of betting with value. This subject ends up being dominant in professional bettors and those who have been betting for longer than the beginners. This article is completely dedicated to the younger ones.

Why is it one of the most “sacred” secrets of sports betting?

If a bettor masters the concept of betting with value, that same bettor will be profitable in the future. Betting with value allows the gambler to have a positive expected value in the long run, in case he finds many bets of value.

But what is betting with value?

It is a situation where the gambler will find an odd that was proposed by a bookmaker in which this odd is reflected in a probability lower than the probability of the event to take place.

Let’s see the following example:

First

Let’s suppose that the probability of Team A winning Team B is 45.45%, in this case, is 2.20 the fair odd.

Note: The calculation of a fair odd is the following:

Second

Let’s analyze the odds that the bookmakers offer us and if they are higher than the fair odd previously calculated, then we are betting with value!

It’s important to pay attention to the meaning of betting with value, this doesn’t mean that you will always have a bet won, it can also be a lost bet. It means that you had a bet with value in a situation where the probability of happening was higher than the risk.

Third

Let’s suppose that the bookmaker will offer to the bettors a quotation of 1.80 (about 55%) for Team A winning to Team B, what should we do in this situation?

In this case, the bookmakers are offering a higher probability, which means that, analytically, they consider that Team A will have to be a favorite in relation to Team B, but in the eye of the bettor, the game seems more balanced by the history. So:

If the fair odd for Team A to win is 2.20, in this case 45% probability to win, it does not mean that the bookmaker’s odd is right or wrong. It is more certain that it is wrong, but if the objective is to extract value from the situation, then in this case there is no value in betting in favor of Team A, but against. Or the best is not to bet and hope that in the course of the game or in the passing of time, it can reach the fair or superior odd. Sometimes, betting with value may also be not to make any kind of bet.